📚 The Problem with Knowledge (Epistemic Arrogance)
w/ Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Hey friend,
Here’s the best content I’ve found lately! 😛
📚 Book Passage
▻ Source
This Passage is from the book "The Black Swan", by Nassim Taleb.
▻ Topic
There is an important issue with becoming more knowledgeable on something -- Our confidence grows faster than that knowledge, which worsens our judgement.“
Our knowledge does grow, but it is threatened by greater increases in confidence, which make our increase in knowledge at the same time an increase in confusion, ignorance, and conceit.
Epistemic arrogance bears a double effect: we overestimate what we know, and underestimate uncertainty, by compressing the range of possible uncertain states (i.e., by reducing the space of the unknown). The applications of this distortion extend beyond the mere pursuit of knowledge: just look into the lives of the people around you. Literally any decision pertaining to the future is likely to be infected by it. Our human race is affected by a chronic underestimation of the possibility of the future straying from the course initially envisioned (in addition to other biases that sometimes exert a compounding effect). To take an obvious example, think about how many people divorce. Almost all of them are acquainted with the statistic that between one-third and one-half of all marriages fail, something the parties involved did not forecast while tying the knot. Of course, “not us,” because “we get along so well” (as if others tying the knot got along poorly).
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Picking Nuggets Note:
Epistemic arrogance matches perfectly with the initial phase of the Dunning-Kruger effect...
* As the individual starts to learn about a particular Field, his perceived competence increases at a much faster rate compared to his acquisition of real competence. Besides, I think that if in that Field/Activity there is also ton of misinformation (for instance, in emerging fields where there can exist many strong self-interests from other people -- best example: The typical ad about investing on a new Crypto Platform with some "unique" feature that is gonna give you instant riches), the mismatch between perceived competence and real competence is even greater!
* (Reduction of Epistemic Arrogance) // As the individual makes mistakes and gets more knowledgeable on the Field, his confidence decreases (as he realizes that he is prone to many mistakes and he starts seeing a bigger picture of the Field) while his real competence slowly increases!
"The problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts while the stupid one are full of confidence." - Charles Bukowski
💎 Best Content
✅ Mark Zuckerberg in the early days of FaceBook…
"A lot of people are focused on taking over the world. They are like doing the biggest thing and getting the most users. And I think part of making a difference is focusing intensely... There is a level of service that we can provide when we were just at Harvard... I really just want to see everyone focus on college and create like a really cool college directory product that is very relevant for students."
This reminded me of Peter Thiel's advice of going after a small Niche and make something superior and unique for a small group of people. Once a big part of that Niche is taken over, repeat the process with related Niches and gradually expand! Never go after a Big Market on day one.
✅ This is probably the best podcast episode I have heard this year. An absolute gem. David Senra is truly a learning machine.
Super insightful moment when he finds the same theme across Paul Graham, Naval Ravikant and Michael Jordan on doing what feels like play to you, and that is also valuable for a Niche / Group of people.
✅ Jeff Bezos
This clip, from an interview of Jeff Bezos, reminded me of Naval's quote:
"An old boss once warned: “You’ll never be rich since you’re
obviously smart, and someone will always offer you a job
that’s just good enough.”- Naval Ravikant
The smarter you are, the braver you gotta be!
✅ F.U. Identity
✅ Male Depression
To feel like a victim feels good instantly, but it will destroy you in the long-term. The hero archetype is not someone who demands on others, is someone who strives from the difficulties he experiences.
"A great man is hard on himself; a small man is hard on others."
- Confucius
✅ The Cynicism Safety Blanket
Wishing you a lovely weekend,
Julio ❣️
Love your content- both here and on YouTube. Thanks. Small point - “judgment” has only one “e.”